Think the NFL lockout is bad?  Think again. While many might be sick of the whole NFL lockout, the NBA version is likely to be worse. The NFL is closing onto a deal. The NBA could not be farther from one. The NFL’s problems are only about revenue sharing. The NBA’s problems extend beyond that. The question with the NFL lockout is whether or not any games will be missed at all. Meanwhile, NBA fans are asking how many games will be missed and whether or not there will be a season. The NFL lockout has lasted over 100 days. How long will the NBA lockout last then? This article tells you what each side wants, why they want it, when we might be able to expect a deal to get done, and what the lockout means for the league.

-The Sides:

With unrealistic demands from David Stern and the owners, we may be looking at a long lockout.

     The Owners: Led by NBA commissioner David Stern, the owners argue that with the current system, NBA teams are having trouble making a profit.According to the league, twenty-two of the current thirty teams lost money during the past season. The owners claim that under the current system, it’s impossible for every team, especially “small-market” teams that do not operate in New York or LA to have a chance.

They have two choices to fix the problem:

-Option A: The owners from big-market teams could share some of their profits with the owners stuck in red ink.

-Option B: The owners could squish the players in negotiation so that every owner makes more money.

I think they’ll take Option B.

-What exactly do owners want? : The owners want a “hard cap”, which lowers the salary cap, or the maximum amount of money each team can spend on players, below the current cap of $5

8 million. Lowering the salary cap would decrease the cost of player payroll, putting the leftover money right into the owners’ pockets. The owners also want a revenue plan where they bag roughly 60% of all league revenue. This number is a huge jump from the 43% share they have under the current system.

     The Players: The players are led under NBAPA chief Billy Hunter. Not only do they want to keep the system that benefits them, they want more. They also state that the NBA figures are not accurate and that only ten franchises lost money last year. To prepare for the lockout, Hunter has been telling players to save their money over the past two years. The union vows that they will not fold like they did during the 1999 lockout.

The players and NBAPA chief Billy Hunter, (bottom right) hope for a better outcome of the lockout than in 1999.

          -What exactly do they want? : The current NBA player makes an average of around $5 million dollars, the most of the four major american sports. Under the current NBAPA proposal, that number would continue to rise up to $7 million in the final year of the contract. This raise is extremely unrealistic, though the players may just be starting high to match the owners’ crazy demands. Also, the players want a “soft cap”, where the salary cap will be higher, giving more money to the players. Finally, the players want to keep their revenue share at 57%, although they have been willing to lower that to 54% in their latest proposal.  That offer was immediately rejected by the owners.

     Prediction: Neither side intends to compromise. NBA commissioner David Stern summed it up by threatening that the offers from the NBA will only get worse. It’s a large game of chicken in which one side gets its way and the other side folds.  Historically, players from the four major sports have lost in these situations. It’s much harder to unify all of the NBA players rather than only thirty owners. Also, the owners are sitting on a lot more money than the players. I doubt that Nets owner and Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov is declaring bankruptcy any time soon. Eventually, one-by-one players will run out of money and call for an end of the lockout. However, the players seem to be more prepared for this lockout. I see this prolonging the lockout, however, when it comes to crunch time and the decision comes to cancel the season, I see the players folding. However, the owners may have to give up a little if they want a deal to get done. I predict something similar to the fifty games in the 1999 season with the odds being on fewer games. A deal was then cut in January of ‘99, so expect a deal somewhere during the winter if one is made and the season is salvaged. If there is no deal and the season is canceled, you may have to wait a lot longer and the owners will still probably win some time in the Spring or Summer.

What it Means: Let’s assume there is some basketball and the owners get their way in negotiation. (The following works for everything except Old Teams if there is no season at all.)

Supposed Winners:

Deron Williams could possibly be the first of many players to head east should the lockout persist.

-Old Teams: A shortened season means the regular season is no longer the eighty-two game marathon it once was that would beat up old teams. So look for teams like the Celtics, Spurs, and Mavs to get better playoff positioning as they look to thrive in, instead of try to survive, the regular season.

-Small-Market Teams: A smaller salary cap means that big-market teams that are richer have to lower payroll to something that is easier for teams with less money to pay. Also, big-market teams will not have enough cap space to pay for multiple superstars, meaning that superstars will have to spread out. Look for all small-market teams like the Bobcats and Cavaliers to benefit from this over time.

-European Teams: Some players may get sick of being locked out and choose to play overseas in order to make some money. Already, Deron Williams says that he wants to play in Turkey. When everything clears up in the NBA, some guys might come back, some might not.

Definite Losers:

-Teams With Multiple Stars (a.k.a. the Heat): With less allowed money to pay for players, teams like the Heat will not be able to afford multiple superstars. LeBron, Wade, and Bosh take up roughly $43 million of the $58 million cap of the Heat’s payroll. Under a “hard cap”, the little money the Heat had to fill nine of the twelve remaining roster spots will shrink even more. They have two choices: either get rid of Mike Miller and/or Udonis Haslem, surround the big three with a bunch of scrubs on ten-day contracts and hope they can win a championship with the big three having to average 75 points a nights or, get rid of and replace one of the big three. The same thing goes for the Knicks, who are trying to add Chris Paul with Amare and Melo; the Lakers, who are rumored to be going after Dwight Howard; and the Mavs, who constantly are paying over the luxury tax and just broke the bank for Dirk last summer.

If the owners win, the Miami big three may have to break up before ever winning a championship.

-Rookies and Developing Teams: With a lockout, teams are not allowed to use any facilities or hold any team activities. This hurts rookies, as they need to learn their team’s system as well as get to know their teammates. This especially hurts the Cavs, whose two best players are rookies. Unless rookies are willing to host their own private workouts, they may have to learn these things on the fly during the season. The same goes for teams that are having problems or haven’t played that much together such as the Heat, Knicks, and Thunder. You try to solve those problems in the off-season, not when you’re competing for a championship.

-Injured Players: Players are not allowed to use team facilities during the lockout. That includes medical facilities. Injured players will either need to pay for their own doctors or take advantage of Obamacare if they want to get better.

-Teams Looking to Trade: Chicago needs another scorer, the Lakers want Dwight Howard, the Knicks want to get Chris Paul. Too bad. Under the  lockout, teams are not allowed to trade or sign free agents.

-The NBA: Missing most of a season, if not a whole season, due to a greedy fight over money between two sides full of multi-millionaires and billionaires that do nothing besides playing basketball and coming after having one of the best seasons in league history is not exactly the best PR move by the NBA. If they miss an entire season, the only good thing that will happen will be LeBron’s failure to win a championship.